This [1] (dammit, you need a username and password unless you come from a Google search, so click here [3] and then click the first result) is a long but detailed and interesting transcription of a lecture from Prof Hitoshi Oshitani, one of the expert group, a few days ago. Google translates it into fairly natural, easy to read English. In general it all seems fairly good.
There are some very surprising bits in there like the fact that they think that 80% of cases do not transmit and that 10% transmit to 1 person. This is not something I've heard anywhere (inside or outside Japan) and it implies that the remaining 10% must be transmitting a hell of lot to get us up to epidemic levels. It also seems like it would be very hard to reliably establish this when you're not testing very much.
It's unclear to me whether this 80/10/10 split is actually something that's driving testing policy. Its not that he denies that asymptomatic transmission is a problem but there's a lot of talk about what influences how infectious someone else. Given how little we know about this, I'd rather we just over-tested instead of trying to be smart.
Finally, he ends with an oblique reference to The Hammer and the Dance with a chart pulled from Thomas Pueyo's post [2]. This describes what I would love to see, a short, real lockdown to get to manageable levels (the hammer), followed by aggressive tracing, hygiene and other measures (the dance) were we try to find the best way to keep infections low and controlled. Still no concerts etc but we have a mostly normal life until a vaccine arrives. That puts us where Taiwan, South Korea etc are.
It gives me some hope that he refers to this but from everything else I've read, actual the policies have resulted in an inflatable hammer. We have already failed once at the the dance. He is calling for increased testing but others are still saying no that. Without that the dance will fall apart again.
There are some very surprising bits in there like the fact that they think that 80% of cases do not transmit and that 10% transmit to 1 person. This is not something I've heard anywhere (inside or outside Japan) and it implies that the remaining 10% must be transmitting a hell of lot to get us up to epidemic levels. It also seems like it would be very hard to reliably establish this when you're not testing very much.
It's unclear to me whether this 80/10/10 split is actually something that's driving testing policy. Its not that he denies that asymptomatic transmission is a problem but there's a lot of talk about what influences how infectious someone else. Given how little we know about this, I'd rather we just over-tested instead of trying to be smart.
Finally, he ends with an oblique reference to The Hammer and the Dance with a chart pulled from Thomas Pueyo's post [2]. This describes what I would love to see, a short, real lockdown to get to manageable levels (the hammer), followed by aggressive tracing, hygiene and other measures (the dance) were we try to find the best way to keep infections low and controlled. Still no concerts etc but we have a mostly normal life until a vaccine arrives. That puts us where Taiwan, South Korea etc are.
It gives me some hope that he refers to this but from everything else I've read, actual the policies have resulted in an inflatable hammer. We have already failed once at the the dance. He is calling for increased testing but others are still saying no that. Without that the dance will fall apart again.
2 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
3 https://www.google.com/search?q=%E3%80%8C3%E3%81%A4%E3%81%AE%E5%AF%86%E3%80%8D%E3%80%81%E8%AA%95%E7%94%9F%E3%81%AE%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AF%EF%BC%9F%20-%20%E6%8A%BC%E8%B0%B7%E3%83%BB%E6%9D%B1%E5%8C%97%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%99%E6%8E%88&oq=%E3%80%8C3%E3%81%A4%E3%81%AE%E5%AF%86%E3%80%8D%E3%80%81%E8%AA%95%E7%94%9F%E3%81%AE%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AF%EF%BC%9F%20-%20%E6%8A%BC%E8%B0%B7%E3%83%BB%E6%9D%B1%E5%8C%97%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%99%E6%8E%88&fbclid=IwAR0iDgCweB8WRA9o8GQIWg3E-W5ZaW5bJgHD5twPch3zQPmdgKON0j7TVEU
3 https://www.google.com/search?q=%E3%80%8C3%E3%81%A4%E3%81%AE%E5%AF%86%E3%80%8D%E3%80%81%E8%AA%95%E7%94%9F%E3%81%AE%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AF%EF%BC%9F%20-%20%E6%8A%BC%E8%B0%B7%E3%83%BB%E6%9D%B1%E5%8C%97%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%99%E6%8E%88&oq=%E3%80%8C3%E3%81%A4%E3%81%AE%E5%AF%86%E3%80%8D%E3%80%81%E8%AA%95%E7%94%9F%E3%81%AE%E8%83%8C%E6%99%AF%E3%81%A8%E3%81%AF%EF%BC%9F%20-%20%E6%8A%BC%E8%B0%B7%E3%83%BB%E6%9D%B1%E5%8C%97%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%99%E6%8E%88&fbclid=IwAR0iDgCweB8WRA9o8GQIWg3E-W5ZaW5bJgHD5twPch3zQPmdgKON0j7TVEU
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