Friday, March 13, 2020

Zombieing along in Japan

This is the Ministry of Health's page. They have a full breakdown of cases and outcomes.
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/seisakunitsuite/bunya/newpage_00032.html
This Kyodo news page has nice graph of detected cases and testing numbers over time.
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/03/c35480d9a1eb-coronavirus-outbreak-latest-march-12-2020.html
What this tells you is that what Japan has done so far has been fairly effective but it hasn't been enough. The schools have been closed for 2 weeks, events have been cancelled and still, the number of daily new cases is rising. If it was truly effective, the numbers would be going down by now. In South Korea they have been going down sharply for a week (and they are still testing like crazy).
Japan's only doing 200 tests/day in some cases. That means they're still just reactive - find a case, track the contacts, test them all. That's almost enough but not quite. You'll never find every contact, ever person who used the same shopping basket or rode the same bus. With a less transmissible virus that wouldn't matter but with this one it seems to be just enough for the virus to be winning.
I was really worried that the low testing was masking massive numbers of undiscovered infections but if that was the case, I think by now, we would see a much higher proportion of critical cases and hospitalization than we do. So we're still far away from an Italy style crisis (also our cases are spread widely, not concentrated in one small region).
The problem is that this almost-containment is not enough. Even if it stays kinda-safe, it never ends.
Japan is great at enduring pain and could probably keep this up for months but the cost would be huge. Something needs to change to turn that gradual increase into a decrease.
Two things give me hope:
  1. Abe desperately wants the Olympics and they cannot happen with the status quo (forget about the crowds, the athletes are all over one-another - filthy beasts!).
  2. It won't be long before South Korea's and China's daily new cases are lower than Japan's. Hopefully that's a pain Japan's government won't want to endure for long.









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